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From: AL - MO - PZ
Date: 23 Jul 2004
Time: 06:54:19 -0500
Remote Name: 216.192.10.3
Cherry Up Pen (aka T-h-e P-e-n a-n-d t-h-e I-n-k-w-e-l-l, aka ratGIRL)! - You know what the oodels were of winning? 1 in 29,500. Which means that the odds of not winning (aka losing) were . . . 29,499 in 29,500. Those are lon godds, if you aks me. If you want to put that in perspective - that about FILLS half a football stadium. Of course there are longer ones - odds not yards. [[And here is my latent (like lay person but more . . wwll . . .tent like . . .) attempt to bring toegether humor and statistics in an alchemical blend of 7 herbs and spices. Please note - statistics is a hard roe to hoe . . . ). Yes, the subject was long odds (not to be confused with long Johns - the knight wear or the Silvers Fish fast food outlets . . . just what are they lettingout at a fast food place anyway . . . any way - long odds. Oh, there are many examples. Like the odds of a traveler from the East or West actually getting that hot ball of wax up into the air (you do know that that whole Icarus thing was a feeaskco in communication. The sun did not melt his wings per sey - (OK, to be techincal - melt the wax that held the O - pinions [like O rings only it is heat that cuases failures in the pinions while the O rings (short for onion rings) have an intollerance for cold - you do not want me to go into the whole buisness of explaining thermal expansion coefficients, do you? Right. No need to go there! So, wehre was I? Oh, trying to cheer you up by showing you there are worse odds - or you are in good company even if you are not in Paris or Kansas anymore.))) (three ")"should about do it) . . . OK, just to Finnish off the Icarus thing - the Sun is made of Wax (the whole bit about the Moon waxing and waning is just way off base (second base if you aks me, but I only empire as a sideline - what do you think - four?)))) Anyway - the sun is like a wax magnet and the Sun is the South pole and poor Icarus used North Pole wax for his adhesive - so there you go - simple magnetic N-S pole polarity demonstrated just like they do rocket engine testing over the Pacific . . . just in case something goes terribly wrong and needs to come plumeteeing back to earth. )) . . . two more should about do it?)) .. .. .. So, the odds. The critical failure point is the whole balck bird wheeling overhead, breathing fire routine. (Always try and spot the big fly in the oinkment, I allways say!) . Oh. And those sticks just have to go. The load capacity of your average desert walking stick is (and this is a gnereous estimate I assure you) a maximum of 300 pounds when held in a vertical position and - let us face it - wood burns. No getting around that - (unless they were fire proffed at the same time as Phils shirt. No, I am not going to give evens on that one. Must focus !) Besides, the fundametnal problem with the sticks is that they would only raise the wax fire ball about shoulder height - with no way of knowing if the thing can levitate, let alone climb unaided up into the sky. [Building Jacobs Ladder might have been an option, but at an estimated combined length of 2 wood dowels (the walking sticks given an additional MOS) of 12 feet, if you used half for the rungs and the other half for the side poles - the ladder would only be 3 feet tall - hardly the BIG step up into the sky needed here. So, let us try to see the solution by painting the best case scenario ~ one of the travelers convinces the black bird, who has this amazing capacity to carry heavy loads, to not only avoid setting the whole desert on fire (I mean, truly - how accurate an aim can the bird have while wheeling about on dessert up drafts and downdrafts . . . BBQ at the Oasis is ore like it . . .) but swoop down and fly the sun back into the sky. (perhaps even plug up the hole the rain is falling through). Now in order to do this, one of the travelers (we really do not care which, do we?) has to a) hike or trek through low population density (aka desserted) deserts and b) be able to speak to birds, and c) be on very freiendly terms with this particular bird, which d) happens to be able to lift extremely heavy loads, and strangely enough e) can not only survive being burned alive but somehow come out better for the experience (no animal endangerment/cruelty here, folks!). . .. .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . Ok so hear goes Nothing************** Let us start with A- Travels through deserts. . . . Given your top vacation spots around the world, the relative popularity of San Diego and Sea World versus Death Valley - Id say 1 out of 1,000 people do this on some type of basis (yes, many military bases are located in the desert for just this reason - Deserts - The place few want to be.) ************** B - ABLE to speak to birds. OK, so lets estimate how many people talk to birds - I mean really talk to the birds. And BTW - reading Joseph Cornells book, bird watching , and imitating bird calls to lure them to their demise does not qualifly. We mean people who actually get out in nature and talk to birds with the knowledge that the birds are listening, understand and so have errr. . . let us say have a sound correspondence with the little winged creatures. (the get out in nature part is critical - since being kept in a small room in a white jacket does not apply here) Hmmm - I am calling this one at 1 in a 1,000,000 (1 Million) (which means that roughly 6,382 people on the planet do this). It is a guess - but how many Dr. Doo Littles can there bee? ************** Next, C, D and E - This all seem to go together, so we will consider them together until we read in the tabloids to the contrary. C/D/E - ON Freindly terms with this extraordinary bird. I read this as being a very unusual relationship - since it does seem a rather Herculean request and a lot of effort on the birds part. (no kidding, no lambing and especially no duckling or gosling. . . ) So, I am thinking power animal here. And not just in the bond, but in the lifting capacity. In cse you did nto know, the Sun is actually very, very heavy. [Nasas estimate is 2 x 10E30 kg - that's 2 with 30 zeroes after it.] Dont ya just love Nasa online! Sourcce: http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/ask_astro/answers/970609f.html ] And since the Sun is very hot (if you do not want to take my work for it - go dew a google search if you want a precise estimate of the temperature at the surface of the Sun ;-) I am just gonna call it HOTT. So prey tell, what kind of bird has tremendous load bearing capacity and can not only survive incineration, but phropet from it? Hmmm - only one type of bird comes to mind . . .a phoenix. But a phoenix disguised as a generic black bird. Well, . . . let us start with the easy part ans see if we can sneak up on an estimate here . . . how about we start with ballparking how many people are aware of their power animal - in this New AGE, Id say what? . . hmmm 1 in a 100. SO, of all the power animals someone could have - what are the odds of having a black bird. I would say having a crow or raven would make it say, 1 out of 200 possible animals. But this is not a crow or raven - but a generic balck bird. (Trust me on this one - power animal birds in the literature are always a specific breed . . . crows and ravens . . . most PA books (Western Native American mostly) just do not list a genereic "balck bird". So this is a rarer type you do not pick out of a book or the ususal Power Animals R Us store. One that seems to resist being put into a specific category. If that was it alone, I would say 1 out of 1,000 for having a generic black bird power animal. And if it was having a phonexic as a power animal - given the Chinese affinity for them weighed against the fantasy component, I would give that as 1 in 10,000. But this is a bird of another feather - or two feathers, as it were. For this is a bird in disguise - or having two sides - one mundane and one magical. So what are the odds someone has two power animals in one - and one of them magical? I am going to go out on a limb and say 1 in 10,000,000 cuz I think this is pretty darned rare - an odd combination , if you will. So, if we assume that A, B, and the C/D/E combo are not related there is a techincla statisticall term for it, but realted will work for here) - then the odds are the combo of [scrolling back up here] 1:1,000 (A) and 1:1,000,000 (B) and 1:10,000,000 (C,D,E). That is 1:10E3 and 1:10E6, and 1:10E7. Combined that makes 1:10E(3+6+7) = 1:10E16 = 1 out of 10,000,000,000,000,000 = 1 out of 10 Million-Billion. And since there are only (going out to check the human population clock at http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html ) there are only 6.382 Billion alive today - statistically by my estiamtes - if you wanted to find someone like this in the universe, you would have to search over a million planets just like Earth. Or, put another way, (since the total estimate of the number of humans who have ever lived is under 10 Billion) the earth would have to evolve like this a Million times before you could be assured statistically that someone form the East or West would have these attributes. >> Ergo . . . pull up a lawn chair . . . this may take a while. . . . . Hmm . . . I wonder if the odds of pigs flying is any better . . . and if so, which one will come first?? Bird lifting Sun back into sky or Pig flying - news at 11. ***********So, Pen, cheer up. IF you think being one of the 25, 499 is bad, try rolling a dice (not even a paif of dice) 9,999,999,999,999,999 times and coming up snake eyes (or would that be one snake eye - didnt somebody give up an eye for something . . . Nordic . . . was it Odin??? Is that why the one eyed man is king? And we only see profiles? Apples and eyes . . . apple of my eye . . . apple core . . . peel an apple . . . black eyed peas . . .peas and carrots . . . more carrots if you please . . . well, there is nothing like doing a little math to ground some energy in the middle of the night . . . some people call this fun. We call idt maize. . .. - al (running a maze in the statistical labyrinth where the sun is made of wax and the moon is maid of cheese - ever wondered why the wax coating they put on huge cheese wheels you see in delis (new or otherwise) are RED? Im telling ya - there is more apple here than meets the eye but less rubber than meets the road . . . which the chicken crossed and got hit by lightening any which way you can can originated in Pasir Faruk did it in th elibrary with a tuning fork under the pool table (laughing and yawning ;-))) 5 should about do it )) hmmm - maybe statistics is the South pole and humor is the North, and never shawl the twain meet (Mark Twain, that is . . . and a lot of people met him . . . A jumping Frog for one, a pair of Huck Finn types . . . heck a whole bunch of people in Claiveritas county . . . anotehr yawn . . . maybe that is why people are different than magnets? )